Monday, September 17, 2012

Robert Rodriguez on QE3: "All in!"

Rodriguez is a very interesting money manager, and his candid opinion pieces are always worth reading. Here, he reacts to last week's aggressive quantitative easing announcement by the Federal Reserve. He mixes a little of his politics with his analysis. Depending on your own views, you may wish to filter that part out. His main point: the Fed is, at some level, trying to force investors to take risk. Investors will need to remain disciplined, and this will be difficult.

I would add that one tough question is, to what extent does discipline mean holding fixed-income like U.S. Treasury bills, when the currency is at risk of depreciating if the printing keeps going? What makes this question so difficult is that it is hard to know at what point the huge expansion of the monetary base that has taken place since the 2008 crisis will actually show up as serious inflation. On this matter, it is a lot easier to pose the questions, like Socrates, than it is to give an answer.