Friday, July 6, 2012

Gillian Tett's Concerns

     I tend to be one of those guys who thinks about the downside more than the upside. It may be visceral, or it may be rational. I don't know. Maybe it is that good news can always take care of itself.
     In that spirit, or lack of spirit, I recommend this piece in the FT (registration required) by the ever-incisive Gillian Tett. The title is, "Five reasons the summer curse may strike." No prediction intended on my part, but this is a good list of the downside risks, and it made me think.
     I found it interesting that Tett includes the Libor scandal as a risk for the markets more broadly; I had not thought of that, but it does undermine confidence.
     She leaves out profit margins being wide, and therefore at risk of reverting downward. But that is a longer-term matter, and her piece is focused on the here and now.